Thursday, March 18, 2010

April '10 Bid's Strategy in Bidding and The Christmas Tree

Greetings Everyone!

Today, I will cover some aspects of bidding just to reenforce the basics. Also, since my Optimization post, we should all be very honored to have Terry Cox (PSP FO) contributing some very good and in-depth material. Terry is currently working on a book about PBS.  In my talking with Terry, he brought up the very good point that the majority of PBS knowledge is tribal and in most cases it is the blind leading the blind. I have been in that boat before, but thanks to guys like Terry and Frank Bowlin, I understand more today than I did yesterday. Hopefully that trend continues.

Now, on to business!

As I mentioned in the Nuts and Bolts for April the flying has again changed drastically from March to April. The only thing constant is change. Which is to be expected. So, looking at the individual pairings (which are usually out on the 10th of every month, found under 'PBS' of the 'Crewmember tab of SkyWest Online) is paramount. I post the "Nuts and Bolts" for the next month of flying comparing said flying. For April my bid-package seniority dropped largely in part to some junior FAs transferring out of COS. This is both a blessing and a curse since I'll be awarded more hours (COS is on a 'D' package month for April) but I'll still be junior enough not to hold a line of all my layer 1s or layer 2s bids. The seven layers of PBS are so important and in my situation, I cannot afford to not use them all to their potential. I have to have a good dispersion of trips for all of my layers to ensure that I don't get bad trips. The term usually associated with the dispersion of trips in the seven layers is referred to as the "Christmas Tree" since, when properly dispersed, the green lines of the seven layers should look something like the side of a Christmas tree laid on the ground. In each layer you should include more trips than the layer pervious so that you give the PBS computer more options for building you a legal line of exactly the trips you want to have. Or to put it another way, if I can't hold all of my layer 1 trips I want what is in layer 2. If I can't have that, I want what is in layer 3 and so on. To the right side of the layers (See the pictures below) you'll see corresponding numbers. In my layer one I am bidding for 11 trips out of the 378 that I am eligible for. For the Month of April I have some preassigned training events that make me eligible to hold only 378 of the 465 total pairings for COS FA's (that includes both the FA and the FF of the '700).


Above is my bid. This is the "Proritize Layers" section of PBS, seen left. My Strategy this month was to aim for the high paying multi-day trips and go down hill from there. Since there were few of these trips that I found 'good' I included decent paying locals for layers 6 and 7. Now, it is a good rule of thumb to bid to your bid-package seniority and beyond in layer seven. In my layer seven I was bidding 48.1% while my bid-package seniority for April was 58.1%. The reason I can get away with this is that the upper seniority in COS bid for locals which leave the good paying multi-day trips for folks like me. Knowing how people senior to you bid is an unbelievable help. It really did the trick for my line award for March. Also, under the advise from Terry, I have bid for Max Credit in all layers except layer seven. Hopefully this will create no optimizations for my bid so I'll get exactly what I want.
That's the Strategy in Bidding / The Christmas Tree post for April! Now on to the Award and Reasons Report!

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Ron >> Also, under the advise from Terry, I have bid for Max Credit in all layers except layer seven.

Unfortunately Ron, you misunderstood my advise, but let me go over the Max Credit rule again since it's definitely one of the most misunderstood.

The function of the "Max Credit" rule is to maximize the credit value on a given layer by looking for the best paying combination available on that layer.

Let's look at what that means. Suppose that three trips, A, B, and C were asked for on some layer. All things being equal, PBS will simply award you one of the trips at random. Yes, it is true that there are a lot of things PBS takes into account, including of course your line properties, as well as some global considerations that change dynamically as the lines are processed. That being the case, I'll admit the process isn't strictly "random", however for anything that you can either know or control at bid time, you might as well treat it as such.

Before continuing, let's take a step back, and look at PBS from the bigger picture perspective. PBS's prime directive is to cover the flying for the company, and to build lines for line holders to the extent possible.

That being the case, keep in mind that PBS really doesn't care who flies a pairing. Which ever trip it decides to give you, it still needs to assign the other two to someone else. Being that it needs to assign all trips (if possible), which one you specifically get is really of no concern. What it also doesn't do is bias your credit value against either the high end or low end of the scale. You might argue that "It's obvious I want a lot of credit", but for each of you out there that think so, there's the opinion that goes, "It's obvious I don't want to work much". This is "Preferential" bidding, and it's up to you to let PBS know your preferences. I can't second guess them.

Now back to the three pairings in question. In this case, as I said, you'd end up with a random one. However, if "Max Credit" were checked on that layer, it would give you the highest paying one of the three.

Now, take the case where there is a 20 hour 4-day pairing, and on the same days, you bid 2, 2-day pairings paying 11 hours each. In that case, PBS would assign the 2-day pairings since that combination adds up to more credit than the 4-day trip.

But what's actually important to know here, is that although PBS has maximized the pairing combination for the layer, what HAS NOT changed is the amount of credit you're targeting for the month. You could bid Max Credit on all 7 layers and still end up with only an 80 hour line. (75 for RJ pilots).

To control the amount of credit for the month, use the Target Line Credit Range rule. THIS is the one that should never be turned on in layer 7.

So, what's the value of Max Credit then? Well, the net effect is that Max Credit will tend to put more credit in less space. The result being that you're likely to get an extra day or two off than you otherwise might. You can either elect to work fewer days, or if possible tack more credit into what remains by using the Target Line Credit Range rule.

The at home FFL that doesn't have an FFL yet said...

Wow, thank you for the great explanation of Max Credit. That is the best I have heard so far!

That said, I am still reluctant to use Target Line Credit Range (TLCR). I do want to work lots of hours in the month, but in my using TLCR I have found that it sends my bid through the optimizer and I'll have two or three pairings "replace by lower layer pairing due to line constraints."

This month has been one of the few months where my bid didn't get optimized. So I am inclined to be hesitant in using TLCR for that very fact. It is easier for me to be awarded the best paying trips my seniority can hold and then hope for higher credit trips available on skedplus. So having the one or two more days off a month gives me a greater flexibility for high credit and time off.

Unknown said...

I still am sure, and definitely of the opinion, that setting a high TLCR will NOT run the optimizer, as long as you don't have any TLCR value turned on in layer 7. TLCR is the second biggest offender for causing bids to fail, because people stick to their guns and check mark it all the way across their bid.

Remember, PBS is REQUIRED to conform to your line constraints. If it can't then it's forced to go to the next layer. On layer 7, there's no real "next" layer to go to, and it will run the optimizer if TLCR has been the reason that the layer couldn't complete.

Here are some general guidelines for TLCR to keep in mind...

1) If you want high credit, then bid for it, but for crying out loud, turn it off in later layers, and NEVER have it turned on in layer 7.

2) Bid as wide a range as you can. Bidding a 2 hour range is insane. Bidding a 5 hour range when you're asking for 4 day trips is insane.

and lastly...

3) Bidding an illegal range is insane!

Legal ranges....

62.5 is NOT the lower limit. That's for your benefits if full time, though that's going to be a biddable range for FAs soon, I understand.

currently - legal TLCR ranges (and defaults) are...

RJ Pilots: 75 to 120
All others: 80 to 120
Part Time: 40 to 62.4

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